2017/18 Ashes

Ashes to Ashes – The Ashes Panel, 1st Test, Part 2

LordCanisLupus34 Comments

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Continued from yesterday, the second set of questions, answered by the Super Seven.

Question Four – What do the Ashes mean to you as a cricket supporter?

MiaB – As a cricket supporter of English nationality, the Ashes are still the major event in the calendar.  But, if you look back, it is interesting how few series there have been where both sides were packed with star quality.  They tend to be rather one-sided – eg 1928, 1948, 1956, 1974 and just about every series between 1986 and 2005.  Most of them have been about ordinary teams with one or two stand-out players – 1970, 1972, 1978, 2010, 2015 particularly come to mind.  The Ashes tends to produce absorbing rather than exciting cricket.

Ian – I try not to think of them as the be all and end all but I just cannot help it.  Ashes series have been constant through my cricket watching life starting in 1989 and so many of my most memorable cricket memories good and bad involve the Ashes.

Scrim – I was born and raised in Adelaide. All my Ashes memories up until I was 19 years old were huge wins for Australia sprinkled with some dead rubber losses. It had been drummed into me that beating England was really all that mattered but I didn’t realise how true this was until that winning feeling was finally taken in 2005. I was there under the scoreboard, Day 5 in 2006, probably about 30m away from Dmitri, when they were as good as won back. That was a day of cricket spectating that will probably never be matched.

I live in Norway now. A beautiful, but cricket-free land. I follow English cricket a bit more given that it matches with my time zone. “Knowing my enemy” a bit better, and being starved of cricket only makes me want it more. My 2 year old alarm clock of a son and I will be watching as much as possible.

Danny – Historically, it was a chance for England to measure themselves against what was almost certainly the best Test team in the world. Now? It’s still the highest profile Test series here, so it’s something I can talk about with people who don’t normally follow cricket. Apart from that, it’s nothing special.

Sri – Good to follow as a person with interest in the game wherever it is played but obviously not critical to me.

Silk – Everything?

And….TheBogfather in rhyme….

Slightly away from the question, as to write my true feelings about the Ashes would take many a while and lines, so here’s more a view of why I love Test Cricket as a whole…

In my dreams…
all cricket is played in creams
no emblazoned added ad
or name and number so sad
just ‘whites’…

On my screen…
test matches reign supreme
a battle of wits and skill
not a formulated drill
five-day delights…

On boundary I’m sat…
watching intrigue ‘tween ball and bat
how I desperately yearn
for pace and turn
not flat-track bullying and all that…

On my mind…
supreme contests of skill and thought
unrefined
every game within a game
no two, ever the same
mind games and beauty combined…

On the field…
chances taken then some spilled
with boundaries and dot-balls
loud silence then some roars
intensities follow being bestilled…

then it rains, on come the covers
no duckworth-lewis to smother
still time for a result here…
for the brave to advance
with skills true and askance
final over, final ball, we cheer…

a drawn Test, but what a game
The Ashes would never be the same again
If the idiots that rule our game have their way
Never seen again, another edge of seat last day…

 

Question Five – A brief outline of how you expect the series to go. Who will win? Who will make the runs? Will it be a rout? Fire away.

Silk – There are so many uncertainties. I can genuinely see 5-0 either way. I can imagine a series where Khawaja, Bancroft, Marsh and Paine all average less than 20 with the bat, Woakes and Broad are all over them like a rash, and the Aussies collapse. I can also imagine a series where Khwaja and Handscombe absolutely put England to the sword, alongside Warner and Smith, Anderson shows his age, Woakes proves he can’t cut it, Ball and Coverton are disappointing and Broad, well as he bowls, can’t stem the flow.

I can see England bowling a perfect Australian length and bundling Australia out on day 1 at Brisbane. I can also see England bowling too short, and completely losing it once the shine as gone off the ball. I can see Ali bowling all you can eat run buffet and Joe Root brought on as ‘a partnership breaker’ when Warner is on 191.

Obviously one can imagine Starc and Cummins destroying England in a session, but one can also imagine both going down with knee injuries on the first day, and England winning by an innings.

Ian – I keep switching my mind between an optimistic 3-2 defeat to a pessimistic 5-0 so lets go for 4-1 Australia.   Runs from Warner,Smith and Khawaja.  England’s runs probably won’t be as prolific and could be shared around.  Root might be affected if it isn’t going well and I worry about Bairstow contributing if England are kept in the field for days.

I expect like a lot of tests involving England lately that they won’t be particularly close games.

Danny –  5-0 to Australia, I fear. For England, I expect Root and batsmen 6-8 score the majority of the runs, whilst Cook gets a couple of fifties and everyone else struggles. For Australia, I think Warner, Smith and Khawaja will all average 50+ in the series, as Australia regularly post 350+ scores which England can’t quite match.

Sri – 3-2/3-1 in favor of England. I expect Oz to win in Adelaide and maybe 1 of Perth/Gabba if they win.

MiaB – Two flimsy batting line ups and two injury-prone attacks: it will be about which team stays fit.  If injuries do not intrude, I think Australia will shade it.  However, because these are not sides who are good at attritional cricket, I think each match will have a result.  So, like the last series, I expect 3-2, but this time in favour of Australia.

Scrim – Australia will win. Home conditions and too much bowling firepower, and too many things that have to fall into place at the last minute for England. If Australia win the first two, they’ll win the next three. This is the most confident I’ve felt about an Australian win before a ball has been bowled since 2005. 

Adelaide could be a bit of a shootout. It will be low scoring, and the ball will swing. It is a must win for England if they are to have any hope.

Telling you that Smith will get some runs is like informing you about the Pope’s religion. Apart from Smith, Khawaja looks in good form – close enough to 300 runs at 100 in two low scoring matches at the Gabba in the past couple of weeks. Forget about any weakness vs spin. He’s been a monster on fast pitches for the past few seasons.

TB, Take It Away….

Not expecting a rout but definitely a defeat
3-1 to Aus with one saved by a storm
Frenetic batting mixed with non-moving feet
Inability to take 20 wickets the norm..

Root our top scorer, Cook one score above 50
Mo’ and Bairstow will erratically flow
Woakes with the wickets, Jimmy nulled but thrifty
Broad goes in the fetlock, Crane’s future value grows…

 

Question Six – Finally, and a specific one for this test, Brisbane…. too much emphasis on it, or a real indicator of the series to come?

Danny –  I think England’s best hope of confounding my expectations and actually winning the series is by somehow winning at Brisbane. Right now the Australian fans and media are largely focussed on the England side (and their own selectors), and that pressure could force England players into making mistakes during the game. If England do manage to beat Australia in the first game, the Aussie press will start attacking their own players and management instead of the poms and that might push them into even worse errors than picking Paine.
In terms of the series, I think the day/night game in Adelaide is probably the more significant one. The pink ball, twilight hours and what will probably be a relatively lush pitch could all potentially help England’s bowlers compensate for their batsmen’s inadequacies. If England leave there with the series 1-1 (or even 2-0 up), they at least have something to play for in Perth beyond survival. As it is, I fear the series will be over before the Boxing Day game in Melbourne.

Scrim – Definitely an indicator. If England are able to get a foothold in the Brisbane test, as they did in 2010, then things will be very interesting. However the last couple of Ashes series have disappointingly been full of thrashings one way or the other and I feel there is a good chance England might be on the wrong end of one here.

MiaB –  It is not the same ‘Gabba so I would not read too much into the result of the first test.

Sri – Too much emphasis. It is a 5  test series and thus a first test loss will not hurt england but a first test draw/loss will hurt Oz.

Silk – Huge, huge test. Huge, huge Test. Good toss to lose, I think. Batting on both sides is brittle. You’d be mad to bowl first at Brisbane, but if the side that does bowl first makes early inroads, I think that could be the series, right there. If either batting lineup fails, and let’s face it, there are huge doubts about both, I think heads could go down. Right now, Australia have more to lose. England are a mess, but Australia have picked 1, 6 & 7 on a hunch and will be under huge pressure if they all fail and bring the rest down with them.

I’ll go out on a limb here and at, at a risk of repeating 2003, Root should bowl first if he gets the chance. Get Bancroft, who failed in County Cricket, early doors and the Aussies will be very nervous indeed. If Marsh is batting before lunch on day 1, I think England will win the series.

Ian – I think Brisbane is vital,  England draw or win then they might just do ok in the series but if the Gabba is a heavy defeat then it will be here we go again and 5-0 might just be inevitable whatever moves England make to try and ensure this isn’t the case.

For the last word, or prose, it’s our main man, the Cricket Laureate, Boggy…

Definitely an indicator of how the series will unfold
Depends on how easily England will fold
A close defeat with confidence intact?
Or a complete humbling, some early bags packed?
We need the old 1, the new 2 and 3
To give us hope up front
Or maybe come May we’ll see
Selfey calling for the recall of some old CNUT…

 

There you have it. If you like what you see, and want to take part in the Adelaide test panel, leave me a note below or by e-mail, otherwise you seven get the gig again. My thanks for all their efforts, and I don’t know about you lot, but I’m quite up for this.

We’ll be talking about what we intend to do tomorrow night, and also details of a new way of accessing our posts, in the next 24 hours. In the meantime, comments below and remember, these are volunteers, so play nice!

 

Ashes to Ashes – The Ashes Panel – 1st Test, Part 1

LordCanisLupus45 Comments
australia-celebrate-the-ashes-whitewash_10piscrajeyf61qj64a1ovgr5r (2)
Just A Little Piece Of History Repeating?

In the build up to the Ashes I sought participants for the Ashes Panel. When we did this in 2015 we had a good number of respondents, keen to answer a set of questions on the upcoming series. 2015 is a lot different to 2017. The petrol of anger we felt on here isn’t there, so much. The temperature surrounding the series isn’t there, it just isn’t. You can see it in the posts, the responses, the build up. Pietersen is in the rear view mirror. We’ve got to accept the Cook we have because there is no-one better in England. We have the media we have. But what I love about the blog is that this has always been a participatory experience. We like to hear from you, but wonder if you’ve got the time and inclination.

I was pleasantly surprised after the post yesterday to receive answers from people who didn’t indicate they wanted to play a role. So now I have too many responses (I usually want 5). We have 6 from commenters and one from one of our writers. For that reason I am doing this in two parts. Questions 1,2 and 3 today and 4,5 and 6 tomorrow. I would also like to hear from those who didn’t comment Above The Line in the area reserved for you.

Chris, Danny, Sean and I will do our best to keep up with the events of the Ashes. This is the first time we’ve had the Ashes overseas on the blog and so we know how big an event it can be, and how it can involve us all. What we want to be is honest, direct and interesting. That’s what we’ll give to you – and I think you might well give it back.

So, without further ado, let’s get some of the questions up. Our respondents are:

  • Man in a Barrel (MiaB)
  • TheBogfather (with no spaces)
  • Ian
  • Danny – our scribe, co-editor and all round top contributor
  • Sri Grins – from a neutral perspective
  • Silk
  • Scrim – our Australian exiled in Scandinavia

 

Question 1 – Australia have thrown a surprise with dropping Renshaw, bringing in Paine and recalling Shaun Marsh. From an England perspective does that make you more hopeful / or if Australian make you more pessimistic?

Scrim – More pessimistic, definitely. It gives the feeling that whatever plans were in place have fallen apart. I do sympathise with the selectors. There is very little batting or wicketkeeping depth in Australian cricket at this moment.

The glass half full perspective is that SMarsh at 6 can’t do much worse than every other number 6 since Mike Hussey retired 5 years ago, and Paine is a good keeper who can’t contribute any less than Nevill or Wade with the bat. Australia has managed some pretty good results while getting next to nothing out of 6 & 7 for quite a while.

MiaB – Dropping Renshaw is an odd thing to do.  Wade was not doing so well either as keeper or batsman so if there is wicket-keeping expertise on the Aussie selection panel, then it seems fair enough to me to bring Paine in.  A bit of a risk but a reasonable one.  Bringing back Marsh is frankly deranged.  I cannot understand why they have dropped Maxwell.  However, given that Khawaja is potentially in the mix, with a great record against an English-style attack on home soil (no turf available down-under) the Aussie team is probably a little stronger as a result.

Ian – About the same to be honest, Renshaw averages 36 as does Marsh but over a longer period but Marsh has never nailed down a spot so not much difference here.  The keeping was a question mark for Australia whether they went for Wade, Paine or anyone else so again I don’t see much difference to the outcome here.

Silk – Far more hopeful.Marsh has never been good enough, and Paine isn’t even considered first choice keeper by his State side. Baffling.

Sri – No change. I think the selections are not too way off. Unlikely that other wicketkeepers would have one significantly better. Shaun Marsh is not too bad a call either. He tends to make runs in 1/2 tests before he starts failing.

Danny – Yes. More so with Marsh and Paine’s inclusion than Renshaw being dropped, although having an Australian opener born in Middlesborough would have been fun. I think at least once or twice in the series that England will manage to break through Australia’s top order, and I can’t see Marsh and Paine successfully fighting back the way England’s lower orders have done so often.

And…TheBogfather, in true form, in poems…

I suspect Paine may become a middle order pain
Marsh no more than bog-standard once again
Not sure by dropping Renshaw that they’ll ensure any gain
But still think the Ashes, Australia will regain.

 

Question Two – England’s batting line-up have done OK in their warm ups, but are you at all reassured / convinced that they have it in them to post the large scores?

Danny – Not really. The conditions in the warmup games were particularly conducive to batting, and the bowlers very inexperienced. Obviously it’s better that they played well, and there is an argument that Australian conditions with little seam or swing might help them, but I find it hard to believe in a batting line-up where three of the top five have sub-40 career first class averages.

Silk – They’ve done well enough to convince me that scores of around 300 are not beyond them. In a normal Ashes in Australia (think 2006/07) totals of that kind are nowhere near enough. But this Aussie line-up looks brittle as hell. I am not sure we will need many to win 3 tests.

Sri – Yes. I feel quite confident that they will post scores in excess of 350-400 (10 innings 7/8, 9 innings 6/7, 8 innings 6, 7 innings 5/6, 6 innings 4/5)

MiaB – To post big scores, Root has to be on top form, Cook and Bairstow have to recover some form and Ali has to knuckle down a bit.  They might do it once or twice but it is hard to see them doing it consistently.  Stoneman and Malan actually look as if they might be able to make it – Malan looked particularly encouraging.  Whether they can do it against the extra pace of the Aussie attack is another matter.  In other words, I don’t see this English team doing the steam-roller that Strauss’s team did.  They will be more akin to Nasser’s team in 2002-3.

Ian – I think we can get the large scores sometimes but think we might still be 40-3 far too often for my liking so as usual if England post a decent score it will be because of a late middle order effort rather than from a solid start at the top.

Scrim – I am somewhat convinced. I’m sure Stoneman, Vince and Malan have taken some confidence out of the games. Any batting line up with Root only needs one or two others to stick around a while to build a competitive score.

However apart from 10 or so overs from Nathan Coulter-Nile, they haven’t faced anyone genuinely fast, and they haven’t batted on a pitch as fast as the Gabba or the WACA will be. If the Australian fast bowlers are on song, it probably doesn’t matter what kind of confidence the English rookies have built up to now. 

Take it away TBog…

I think we can be assured
We’ll be consistently 50-3 on the board
Our top order undernourished in class
A tall order for our mid-order to 500 pass
And if Root has a poor series (he’s due…)
Then 300 may be the best we can do
Then with scoreboard pressure, 2nd innings
I don’t see us in a position to be winning…

 

Question Three – How do you think the respective bowling units will go? Is this Anderson’s redemption tour? Can Starc lead the line? Who is the surprise package?

Sri – Starc will do well. Anderson will be average. Not too bad a tour but unlikely to have an excellent tour.

Moeen Ali [as the surprise package].

Silk – Completely impossible to tell. There’s simply not enough info. to go on, particularly given the recent injuries suffered by the Aussies, and the massive inexperience of half of the English attack.

If fit, the Aussies have as good as an attack as they’ve ever had (albeit with only 4 men – 4 being usually enough for them). But impossible to say how Hazelwood will go, and whether Starc and Cummins can last a series. And, indeed, what fresh idiocy Hohns and co have up their sleeves? Chadd Sayers in Adelaide?  Barking. Jhye Richardson would worry me. Not Sayers.

For England, I expect Broad to do well, Anderson to do not so well (but still average in the low-30s), Moeen to go very badly, Crane not to play (unless we’ve lost the series by Sydney) and then …. what?

Woakes, for me, is the crux of the entire series, bat and ball. His batting could well be the difference between 250 a/o and 370 a/o. He’s got scores in him, and can bat with Bairstow or Root to get us to big totals. But he’s never batted in Tests in Aus, so no idea whether he can translate form from other tournaments into the Ashes.

Bowling I rate him similarly the Massie and Alderman. Unplayable in England. Cannon-fodder elsewhere. But his pace is certainly up on what it was earlier in his career. If he bowls well, I think England will win the series. Perhaps comfortably. If he bowls as he’s done on previous tours … England are in trouble.

I don’t rate Ball. Coverton will go alright, if given the chance.

Scrim – Australians have been dreaming of this bowling lineup for a long time, and it’s great to see it finally coming together just in time for a home Ashes. Even if Starc can’t do a Johnson, Hazlewood is world class, and the glimpses of Cummins that we have got are so exciting, even on slow subcontinent pitches. Throw in Lyon coming off great tours of India & Bangladesh and you’ve got a well balanced attack. Even if there are injuries, I’d love to see Chadd Sayers play under lights in Adelaide, Jackson Bird always plays well, Jason Behrendorff is finally fit and is a test-ready player, and Peter Siddle at 8th or 9th choice is still bowling well and always brings out his best vs England. Woakes’ comment that Australia lacks bowling depth was either ignorant or daft.

From an England point of view, I feel like Woakes will be important. When he played that dead rubber test in 2013 he looked like a bits and pieces all-rounder. When I saw him again in the 2016 English summer he looked like a real bowler. He’s started his tour well and might surprise Australian fans. Broad’s form might be a bit concerning for England. Anderson will find conditions will suit him in Adelaide, but apart from that he is unlikely to get the assistance he needs to thrive.

Ian – Australia will take 20 wickets more often than England as they will get more opportunity to do so,  Starc will go well as there is weaknesses in the top order to exploit and I think he can gain plenty of cheap wickets against the tail.  Anderson will go ok in that I think he will do better than 06/07 and 13/14  but I don’t see him having a redemption tour.  I’m not sure about being a surprise but I think Moeen will go well as he will be attacked and away from the subcontinent thats probably the best thing for him.

MiaB – I strongly suspect that Broad will not last the full series.  Beyond Broad and Anderson, the English attack does not pose much of a threat in Aussie conditions.  If Ashwin did not manage to contain Australia in Australia then it is hard to see a less accurate bowler such as Moeen playing the containing role.  Which means that Anderson will have to do his full share of the overs as a stock bowler.  I imagine that Anderson will do well in the day/night match but gradually lose potency over the series. This is where Stokes will be missed – he has that element of threat that eludes Woakes.  If Starc stays fit and gets his line right against Cook, he could get 30 wickets.  I want to see Cummins in action.

Danny – I think England’s batsmen will make the Aussie bowlers look like superstars. As for England’s bowlers, I don’t think any of them will do particularly badly. I expect them to average 25-40, with maybe the 4th bowler (Ball/Overton/Whoever) to go for a bit more.
Anderson will do okay, I think, but I doubt he’ll be anywhere near as effective as he has been at home. He averaged 14.10 this summer but with a Kookaburra ball on Australian pitches I think he’ll be more of a containing bowler who relies on batsmen getting themselves out, particularly with an older ball. Starc I suspect is being overhyped, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Josh Hazlewood actually took more wickets. Which isn’t to say that Starc isn’t very good, just that I don’t think he’ll cut through England like a hot knife through butter. At least, I hope not.
As for the surprise package, I think there’s a chance Stokes might play in the last two or three games of the series. The press seem to think he might not be charged, in which case I reckon England will fly him over and after a token suspension  of 2-3 games (like Warner in 2013), he’ll be back in the side.

Boggy finishes off the first instalment of this Ashes Panel…

I expect bowling to hold the key
As much from a survival of the fittest view
If Starc and co remain in full flow
Then sufficient runs we’ll fail to accrue
England will have magic spells or bowling dry hell
Our samey seam strategy may gift a run spree
Our back-up bowlers may get cricked necks as well
As Smith’s eyes light up with glee…

Part Two will follow tomorrow. My thanks to the participants who put great effort into responding and producing some food for thought. We might even have a go at the questions ourselves, following Danny.

We’d be interested what you want to see from us during the series. We will endeavour to carry out the usual match reports, and also we’ll try our hand at a live blog on certain days / sessions. This will commence with the first day of the series (I have the day off for Thanksgiving the day after). There’s always something about the first day of the Ashes. Been there for two – Days 1 at Brisbane 2002 and Lord’s in 2005. Both memorable, both ending with England on the wrong end.

Enjoy, let us know your thoughts and suggestions. And we’ll do our best despite all our challenging schedules!

Dmitri.

You Bet That Someone’s Counting You – Guest Post by “Man in a Barrel”

LordCanisLupus37 Comments

We’ve had this for a while on Being Outside Cricket, as earlier in the summer MiaB produced some interesting data on moving averages to give another indicator on form and consistency. Here MiaB updates the data set and has a punt on some of the Aussie selections. Like most, even he didn’t see Paine being inflicted. My thanks, as always, and I hope to see more of this in the future. Take it away…..

This is an update on the “twenty innings moving average” (TIMA) method of analysing batting form that I introduced back at the start of the last UK domestic test match season.   LCL suggested that I should give an update just ahead of the next Ashes series to see what thoughts it prompts.  Just as a reminder, I take the last 20 innings and draw the average from them.  After the next innings, I subtract the innings at the start of the series and add on the latest score – so it is a running average of the 20 latest scores.

If we start with Cook, the conventional wisdom is that he had a good summer – 572 runs at an average of 44 – and certainly the usual suspects have been quick to applaud this return to form.  If however you apply a little of what some people disparagingly characterise as “Root maths”, you will recall that 243 of those runs came in a single innings.  So in his other 12 innings, he “only” scored 329 runs at 27, which suggests that there are some problems with the conventional wisdom.  If we turn to the moving average method, we find that at the end of the Chennai test his TIMA stood at 41.  This calculation includes his 2 previous centuries – the 130 at Rajkot and the 105 against Pakistan at Old Trafford.  After his first innings at Lords against South Africa, this last century drops out of the calculation and the moving average starts to drop until it reached a trough at 30.85 at Trent Bridge.  When he made his marathon 243 at Edgbaston, the Rajkot century was still in the running average, so up it goes to 47.  But in the final test of the summer it slips out of the calculation and he starts the Ashes series at 39.4.

His moving average since November 2015 (the Sharjah test against Pakistan) where it last got above 60 has been a little like a W, but on a slope so that each peak is a little lower than the one before and each trough a little deeper.  This certainly suggests a batsman in decline – that Sharjah test is 49 innings ago.

I didn’t get to see much of Cook before 2010 because of work commitments and I have only really watched him since about 2014 but I wonder how much his technique has changed over the years.  One thing that strikes me is his elaborate trigger movements.  During the bowler’s run up, he goes through an intricate series of fidgets, shuffles, and bodily contortions so that, when the bowler’s arm comes over, he is balanced and ready to play whatever shot is required.  Any slight error in the timing of this set of moves and he is likely to get caught in strange positions, as seemed to happen a lot over the last summer.  Of course, there are times when he gets it right consistently and gets runs but this is not happening quite as regularly anymore.  Was he always like this at the crease?  I imagine the selectors and coaches must be slightly concerned by this but obviously I am not calling for him to be dropped.  For one thing, he would have to be replaced and we still have not managed to replace Strauss.  However, it is fortunate, shall we say, that all the media focus is on the guy at the other end, whoever it turns out to be for the Ashes.

Root, on the other hand, has had an unequivocally good summer. His TIMA remains above 45 and, for 7 of the 13 innings I am looking at, it is above 50.  You cannot quibble with figures like those.

Bairstow is a cause for concern, however.  He came back from India with his moving average at 44 after a decent tour.  This summer, it has just dropped and dropped till it now stands at 36.  I believe he is a better batsman than this – and in fact before the South Africa tests his career average stood at 41.  It has now dropped to 39.8.

Stokes is another person who has had a good season – 527 runs at 43.9.  However his moving average is stuck around the mid-30s.  It has been less than 40 for 80% of his career.  I know that the media is full of despair at the idea of Stokes being absent from the Ashes but quite why people make him out to be England’s last hope is beyond me.  Yes, he is capable of the occasional remarkable innings but, just as an example, only 1 of his test hundreds has been higher than 150.  Although his last 10 innings have yielded 470, the 10 before that produced 245.  Of course, he is unlikely to face as much spin in Australia as he did in India – with the proviso that he might not get there – and the pitches should be less awkward.

If the figures suggest that Stokes is over-rated then Moeen is surely under-rated, which probably suits him.  He seems to thrive when the spotlight is not upon him.  He has had his usual up and down season but after Chennai  his TIMA was 43.83 – a figure which Stokes has only bettered 7 times (when he had both his 258 and the 128 at Rajkot in his numbers) – and it stayed above Stokes’s numbers for 6 of the 12 innings they played.

Turning to Australia, the problem is that, as so often, the likely team contains a number of people with little test experience.  Their last team included Renshaw (18 innings), Handscomb (19 innings) and Maxwell (14 innings).  It seems to me that Australian sides for the Ashes have almost always included a number of batsmen unknown to their opponents.  We are left with Smith – unless injury rules him out – who has astonishing figures.  In his last 14 innings his lowest TIMA is 57.89!

Warner, on the other hand, is going through a patch almost as rough as his initial period in test cricket.  Since his score of 163 at Brisbane against New Zealand in November 2015 fell out of his running average, his TIMA has dropped out of the 50s and hovered around 40.  Not as good as it used to but still very reasonable and better than most on the English team, apart from Root.

Wade is hovering around the mid 20s.  Khawaja whom I presume will be picked for the Ashes has got a good set of figures for his last set of 20 innings.  He was consistently averaging over 45 and sometimes getting over 55.  It strikes me that he has slipped under the radar on this side of the world.  I did not think there was much value in looking at Sean Marsh.

 

MiaB did add some charts, but I do need to find a better way of incorporating them in here. I’ll add them when I do it!

LCL

We, Are Young But Getting Old Before Our Time

LordCanisLupus32 Comments

It seems so long ago that How Did We Lose in Adelaide was just my mournful old nonsense and no-one read it. Four years ago I was looking forward to an Ashes series, I had a different role, at a different status in a job that allowed me time to breathe and contemplate the rantings I committed to this digital paper. We had a pretty good team, we’d beaten Australia 3-0 at home, and people actually moaned, after the years we had put up with, that we hadn’t played better in doing so. We’d won in India, and in the batting ranks we looked solid, except for an opener, and in the bowling we looked fine too. Sure, the two games Australia batted first in we had trouble in not losing, but that was being picky.

Fast forward to now and life has taken amazing turns. I’m a lot more senior, in a more challenging role, and it takes much more of my time. As the down time is much shorter, I’ve got less time to write. As the job crams my limited cranium capacity, the key time I devoted to the blog, the thinking time to write stuff in my head before committing it to the blog is restricted. The chances to actually watch cricket is hugely constrained. I’m honest about this folks, I can’t cover what I used to without being more of a fraud than many think I am already. Last week I got some time off, but this coincided with a wedding anniversary (I don’t live in my mum’s basement) which we spent in Rome. This week I face four and half days in major City Law firm’s offices – so no, I’m not unemployed either, and do have a full life – where my job entails negotiating massive transactions. I’m no superstar, I’m not even well paid, but it’s certainly not going to give me the chance to do what I want to do on here.

Because we have the Ashes, and already a hectic pre-Christmas work nightmare, combined with the lack of sleep an Ashes series always brings with it, means fear. It’s certainly much better when we are doing well, but a losing, disastrous series is not a good thing for the soul, or your health. Going to work with a combination of Southeastern trains, our Ashes hopes going south, and sleep deprivation is not a prescription for good health.

I know that this is also a horrible time of year for workloads for both Chris and Sean, so collectively we apologise for the lack of content. Judging by the recent Twitter output, we are not missing much, and also, probably we need to put some stuff together. Danny did a brilliant job this week, and now it’s my turn.

It is fair to say that we only really remember pre-Ashes warm-up games if they have a memorable quote attached to it (Martin Johnson 1986) or that they are part of some well-conceived master plan designed to buff up the Head Coach and their visionary captains (2010 – we’ll try to win every game philosophy). Other than that, no-one really remembers how we do. Do you remember how poorly Cook started the 2010 tour? What about Robert Key’s tour de force against Australia A in 2002? So let’s not read too much into this phony war. Pre-Ashes warm-ups are for practice and to get into some sort of form. I don’t necessarily want my players to get out for skittish 60s or effervescent 80s, but it is absolutely clear, given past form, that if Root doesn’t fire, and Stokes isn’t there, we are putting our faith in Cook having a great series against a top pace attack (we have to go a fair way back for that and the evidence of recent performance really needs realistic appraisal), or one of the players we’ve punted on coming off.

This week BT Sport showed what you should do with a cricket channel by giving a whole day over to the highlights from the 1986-7 series. Going out to that series we had a poor outlook, Australia had performed creditably in India, while we’d lost at home to India and New Zealand. The openers were Broad and Athey, with Gatting at three, Lamb at four, Gower at five, Botham at six. Question marks all over the place. Weak openers, Gower not in peak form, Botham a pale shadow. It clicked because they got off to a good start, got their way with the Australian batting that had a few question marks of their own, and took their chances. This feels a bit like this to me. Throw out the 1994-2006 times, when we went up against a batting line up from the gods, when the Aussies could put out a 2nd XI batting line-up and they’s all get in that England team (on an individual basis). Australia are not in that mode at the moment. They have strong players, like Smith and Warner, but they also have “promising” talent like Renshaw and Handscomb, and their own question marks like the Marsh’s, Khawaja and others. Sure, they could well click and make the runs that are needed, but it’s not certain. This is an Australia team that didn’t handle South Africa very well last year, while with the aid of injuries and suspensions, we fared much better. Form lines aren’t to be trusted. But they are also not to be ignored.

There’s great concern about injuries, as always. It seems, with few exceptions, that we have this going to Australia all the time. Broad and Anderson have avoided the pitfalls, Woakes looks in fine fettle after his injury woes at home, which means we need one more seamer and Overton or Ball will be fine in the role. Tom Curran is one great pre-series spell away from getting a sniff too. We do need Moeen to get fit because in the absence of Stokes, his all round skills, and his elevation a place up the order, are vital. He’s the man we need the most. Fringe seamers who may not even have played aren’t something to flap about. Not really.

I have no real idea what is going to happen which is the joy of the series. We could get battered, and that’s not something to discount, but we could also play well and surprise. England do OK outside of the sub-continent. Stokes is a massive blow, and there’s no way to pretend otherwise (and it’s now too late for him to be involved even if he is cleared), but we can certainly put together performances. Jimmy Anderson has to be good, which is by no means assured (he had excuses for last time around) but why do we fear Mitchell Starc, who has done nothing against us, when we have Jimmy who has 500 wickets and the Aussies don’t give a stuff? Something about mental attitude.

Time permitting we’ll do some pre-Ashes pieces, but we’ll leave the meaningless stuff to others! Can we have some volunteers for the Ashes panel. You may remember how this works; we get five people to answer five questions for each test match and publish them. We also have the annual awards which I’ll put up before the series starts. I have the Dmitris to put together and an annual review of the social and print media. The other members of the editorial team will have their posts too, and I have a piece from Man in a Barrel to stick up (and if you want to update that, sir, please do).

It’s the Ashes though. It’s still special. And I will try to remember that when Lovejoy and Shiny Toy are commentating. It’s going to be hard.

And Another One Gone…

dannycricket72 Comments

It is now just two weeks until the men’s Ashes begins, and it’s fair to say that things aren’t going to plan for England. In fact, it’s hard to see any realistic scenario in which things could be worse for the tourists.

This morning Jake Ball apparently suffered an ankle strain whilst bowling, the latest bowling casualty before the series even begins. Wood, Roland-Jones and Finn are all unavailable, as of course is Ben Stokes for an entirely different reason. Moeen Ali is expected to be fit in time for the first game, but the way England’s luck is going you’d be a fool to guarantee that.

None of these players are on their own irreplaceable (even Stokes), but having 5 fast bowlers with international experience all missing at the same time would tax any country’s reserves. Tom Curran is already travelling to Australia to replace Finn in the squad, and it seems likely another bowler will be called up to join him. There are no obvious substitutes waiting in the wings for England, who already have three uncapped bowlers in their squad.

Liam Plunkett, perhaps the first thought for most people who follow the England team, has apparently been focussing on playing limited overs cricket this summer. His most recent Test match was against India in 2014, and he only played 2 championship games this season. The only other fast bowler with international experience who might be available is Chris Jordan, but with an average of 32.83 in Division 2 this summer he isn’t knocking the door down.

The more likely alternative is another uncapped bowler. Saqib Mahmood and Tom Helm are the two fast bowlers in the Lions squad which will be touring Australia this winter, but neither has much first class experience to draw on. For all of the candidates, I feel massively underqualified to judge them as I don’t follow county cricket very closely. Whoever is selected, it’s a tough ask for such an inexperienced bowling attack to do well in Australia.

The performance of the current bowling attack today against Cricket Australia XI hardly filled me with optimism about the upcoming series either. After taking 5 wickets in the first 33 overs of the innings, England then seemed unable to dismiss the tail with an older ball. I don’t think it bodes well for when England have to face the full Australian side, although of course Broad was not playing in this game.

All of which doom and gloom leads me to England’s batting. Stoneman, Vince and Malan have all had very good tours so far, but it’s hard to look past their performances this summer when guessing how they will play against Australia. Meanwhile, Cook is currently averaging 8.00 on this tour and Root has been good but not great. With Stokes almost certain to be replaced by a bowler, England have much less margin for error from their specialist batsmen than they have enjoyed in recent times.

One point I noted about England’s batting yesterday was how much trouble they had against Australian legspinner Daniel Fallins in his debut first class game. He finished with figures of 5-73, and if he can manage something similar in the second innings then perhaps Australia might be tempted to call Mitchell Swepson or another legspinner into their squad. England’s failings against spin have been clearly evident in recent years, and Nathan Lyon is no doubt looking forward to facing them.

At least the fielding seems pretty good though. That’s something to hold on to.

As a sidenote, BT Sport have been showing the game against Cricket Australia XI for free on their Facebook page, as well as the women’s Ashes Test on their Youtube channel. Free English cricket is so rare nowadays, please enjoy it while you can.

As always, comments are welcome below. If you can give me some small scrap of hope about England’s chances this winter, that would be especially welcome.

Another Heart In A Different Scene

LordCanisLupus47 Comments
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About as high a point as I got to in my Ashes tours

Having said on Monday that it’s “all about the Ashes” in a less than happy way, I have to confront my own position. Now the home test series are over, the next task is the Ashes, and we know, still, it just about has some form of pull on the cricket world, and here. While we feel the general sense of disillusionment with all the game brings with it, it is going to be the proper 2 ½ years between the two old foes going at it, so allow me to get a little bit enthused. For me, and I suspect some others, this is test cricket’s last throw of the dice. If this is a poor quality, poor test series, I don’t honestly know where we go from here. Down to the T20 pier I fear. A new love is hard to find, after all.

After the test summer, we need to look at who might be going, and who might not. I’m not going to dissect the selection quandaries, rather make some observations. It was interesting to read the comments of some of the journalists regarding the selection for the upcoming Ashes. Interesting in that Bayliss has said that if he has anything to do with it, there will be no “flyers” from outside the squad or the playing pool from the last 18 months. This is an admirable approach so it seems, but where is it coming from?

Why would  you shut down other options at this stage? What if one of those mentioned in dispatches suddenly strings together a run of excellent scores at the end of the season? For example, if Liam Livingstone ran off a couple of big tons after his double a week or so ago, why would he be more a risky selection than Tom Westley or Dawid Malan who have not pulled up any trees against an opposition bowling line-up that won’t be in Australia’s league? What if Nick Browne outperformed his Essex colleague in the final games to get Essex over the line? How about if Sam Robson batted Middlesex to safety having been out of the England order since 2014? Ben Duckett could be considered due to this logic, but Sam Northeast, who consistently seems to score runs, reprises his role of the younger generation’s James Hildreth. Sam is averaging 55, yes in Division 2, but this is no spring chicken. Maybe someone has seen something in the past.

I’m not lobbying for Northeast, but the fact that Bayliss seems unwilling to work with what he doesn’t know, just because it is the Ashes, doesn’t compute to me. Australia blew up their batting line-up after Hobart last year, and came across Renshaw and Handscomb. This against a tough South African bowling line-up, albeit a little on the downward curve after clinching the series. Both are now ensconced having made runs. We will be playing three players who have had a few tests each and not really, in truth, looked like nailing it down at all. Westley played a few nice shots early on, a number of the media fell in love quicker than a repressed teenager, only to have their ardour thrown back in their face in what should now be called Hameed Syndrome.

Oh, and on to young Hameed. Again, I have to say this, I really, really want to see the kid succeed. Nothing would give me more pleasure. But agonising over every painstaking, woefully out of nick, half century isn’t going to do it. It’s like revisiting the woes of Ben Hollioake all over again. Let him get on in peace, get himself back to form, and become a player in his own time. In his recent piece Newman insists that “Hameed has to be on the plane” which defies all logic. You want to take a player along who has made two (is it) half centuries all season? Why? Magic beans based on a competent debut against India? Take his age out of it – is he selectable in a way that, say Steven Finn wasn’t despite also proving his test class time and again? I simply don’t know why HH has got them all giddy. I saw one commenter on the Guardian say, within two lines, that Rashid could not be picked for England because of his poor summer, but that HH should go as the third opener!

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12 months ago…just a name on a page. Now so much more.

Newman is nailing his colours to the Alex Hales mast. I am not actually as rabidly against that per se, but he did have his chance over quite a period of time and didn’t take it. That was opening, and it may be he thrives down the order.

On the bowling front, the debate is pretty settled. Clearly Broad, Anderson, Woakes and TRJ will be going (to drop TRJ would be incredible given his start). Moeen is the one spinner, and probably Crane will be the other (Aussie state experience and the fact that Adil is persona non grata). There might be room for another – Wood or Ball given we can’t go outside the last 18 months – and Finn hasn’t exactly staked a claim for recall. This leaves the excitement to a back-up keeper. Why we would choose anyone other than Jos Buttler, despite not pulling up any trees, given the constraints on selection I don’t know.

There remains a sneaking suspicion, though, that to go for a wild card, one of those hunch selections that sometimes come off in Ashes tours down under (but more frequently don’t), might infer weakness or incompetence. The selectors have not pulled a batting rabbit out of the hutch since Gary Ballance, and he soon succumbed to cricketing myxomatosis when he stopped scoring runs, and possibly as more of an indicator, siren voices mentioned technical flaws and GB’s unwillingness to countenance changing them. Ballance suffered from having a batting style only his mother and James Whitaker could love, and while racking up 6 tons in 103 test innings has you a stalwart of the side, 4 centuries in your first 10 tests doesn’t prevent you from getting the axe. So given Ballance is rabbit stew now, the rest of the batting hopes haven’t been as good as him. To punt for someone else may lead people to believe our selectors don’t know what they are doing. Perish the thought.

For me, and I know some of our other scribes, the position of Trevor Bayliss seems rather odd. He’s actively, or maybe passively, made it clear he knows little about county cricket. He seems a little resistant to get out there, like the old school, and run the rule over players. He seemed reticent over Mark Stoneman, but then when he has worked with him, made comments about how he likes him as an unfussy, organised cricketer. Bayliss, and Farbrace the Untouchable, have presided over a maddeningly inconsistent England team. Their fielding has fallen off a cliff. They can play matches of unutterable nonsense, lose the plot every bit as much as the Moores teams of yore. There seems, though, barely a murmur from the media about him. It’s as if his invisible man nature is a virtue. No-one is writing Flower-like eulogies for him in the press. No-one seems to think that he’s a liability either. Maybe people don’t care as much. I’m really not sure.

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The 2017/18 Ashes are going to pit two floored teams together. Who will survive? I think England will lose, potentially heavily depending on how fit the Aussie bowling attack will be. The team is too flawed, and the talent pipeline is drying up. Newman can say we have a world class spine, but the problem with this team, frequently, is when it is behind it has no backbone. Blaming that on three players making their way is one thing. But look at some of the established players, and their inconsistency and you have the nub of the issue. However, we will be watching on BT Sport, and not Sky, which brings me on to my next piece in the next day or so.

TV coverage (don’t worry Bogfather, you can have your go soon as well!)

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Got to find a way….